# SuperToad (OTK) **URL:** \ **Category:** Decks\ **Created:** [June 30, 2016, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.faeria.com/t/supertoad-otk/618 "2016-06-30T08:12:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 2\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ramora](https://boards.faeria.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Ramora](https://boards.faeria.com/u/Ramora)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.faeria.com/t/supertoad-otk/618/1 "2016-06-30T08:12:27Z")
I went on a coding kick and decided to look into SuperToad to get a feel for how effective the OTK combo is. I created a simple simulation in python to “play” the deck and figure out how likely it is that the deck combos out an a given turn. I didn’t include lands into the calculations, so the simulation isn’t perfect. But the simulation also isn’t a perfect pilot. For the code, check out… > **[NolanHartwick / SuperToadSimulation · GitLab](https://gitlab.com/NolanHartwick/SuperToadSimulation)** > > A quick project devoted to figuring out how often/fast the Faeria SuperToad deck can win the game The simulation never mulligans, and never tries to harvest. The game is effectively started on the turn of interest and then a loop of game actions is repeated until no actions can be performed or the game is over. The game actions in order of priority are… 1. Combo off for 20+ damage 2. Cast Windfall 3. Cast Spawn + Feed 4. Cast Tides 5. Cast “wisdom” effect 6. Cast earthcraft For those who don’t want to run the sim themselves, I can say that the SuperToad combo is a turn 6-7 combo. While its possible to go off as early as turn 4, the odds of doing so are below 1%. Turn 5 is a bit more plausible, with 5% on the play and 10% on the explore. On turn 6, we have a 35% chance to combo on the play and 45% to combo on the explore. On turn 7, the combo becomes very likely to go off, 94% on the play, 88% on the draw. Its worth pointing out again that because land restrictions (the real reason to play earthcraft) are ignored, the odds of comboing on turn 4-5 are likely to be overestimated while the odds of comboing on turns 6-7 are likely to be underestimated because the sim isn’t a perfect player. So now I need to ask the SuperToad players, are my results consistent with your experience? The list I used for simulation is… 5 wisdom 3 feed 3 spawn 3 windfall 3 tides 2 toad 2 enchantment 3 dance 3 piper 3 earthcraft ---
**Author:** ![Ramora](https://boards.faeria.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Ramora](https://boards.faeria.com/u/Ramora)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.faeria.com/t/supertoad-otk/618/2 "2016-06-30T20:10:09Z")
Deck got nerfed. It’s now complete trash. Don’t play SuperToad.