I went on a coding kick and decided to look into SuperToad to get a feel for how effective the OTK combo is. I created a simple simulation in python to “play” the deck and figure out how likely it is that the deck combos out an a given turn. I didn’t include lands into the calculations, so the simulation isn’t perfect. But the simulation also isn’t a perfect pilot. For the code, check out…
The simulation never mulligans, and never tries to harvest. The game is effectively started on the turn of interest and then a loop of game actions is repeated until no actions can be performed or the game is over. The game actions in order of priority are…
- Combo off for 20+ damage
- Cast Windfall
- Cast Spawn + Feed
- Cast Tides
- Cast “wisdom” effect
- Cast earthcraft
For those who don’t want to run the sim themselves, I can say that the SuperToad combo is a turn 6-7 combo. While its possible to go off as early as turn 4, the odds of doing so are below 1%. Turn 5 is a bit more plausible, with 5% on the play and 10% on the explore. On turn 6, we have a 35% chance to combo on the play and 45% to combo on the explore. On turn 7, the combo becomes very likely to go off, 94% on the play, 88% on the draw.
Its worth pointing out again that because land restrictions (the real reason to play earthcraft) are ignored, the odds of comboing on turn 4-5 are likely to be overestimated while the odds of comboing on turns 6-7 are likely to be underestimated because the sim isn’t a perfect player.
So now I need to ask the SuperToad players, are my results consistent with your experience?
The list I used for simulation is…